Decision-Making in the Dark

Flying Blind

When faced with uncertainty and high stakes decisions, engaging your intuition is important. Makes sense to me. But if you don’t believe me (I can’t imagine why), research from Columbia Business School found that uncertainty increases one’s reliance on their gut and, interestingly, it does even if the uncertainty has nothing to do with the decision.

Today, we all face uncertainty not only in our business strategies and models, but people are experiencing uncertainty around health, safety and financial security too.

Everything is an unknown, so calculating the probabilities and risks of a decision is not happening. The deliberative process – the list of pros and cons - are incomplete.

Relying on a gut reaction can help us move forward in rapidly changing environments, with lots of noise, risk on the rise, and pressure whether we will make the right decisions. We can become paralyzed. Making no decision is making a decision. And, confident, swift decisions are what your teams need from you as leaders.

This is not to say rely solely on your gut. You should take in all the facts, stats, and business intelligence you can gather. Try to block out the noise and focus just on those facts that are necessary and relevant and then take some time to tune in into what you are feeling.

What am I really listening to? 

Your intuition or gut is a knowing or feeling you get if you listen and create space and silence for it to manifest.

The words “gut” and “intuition” for me are interchangeable though one could say your intuition makes itself known in your gut (but it can also be goosebumps, a shiver down your spin, a word appearing in your mind or a vision – a big red warning sign or a destination). It’s the ability to know something without conscious reasoning.

It is developed over time from past experiences, knowledge, patterns and encounters both personal and professional. You can start early tuning in and cultivating it but the quality and reliability of it comes with learned experience that you build over time.

One of the best compliments I got from a CEO very early in my career (and a backhand lesson) was that I was lucky – when I made an important decision without going to him first – because I had good judgement that was often in line with his. Though, he quickly pointed out his was based on forty years of experience, so check with him first. 

A Note of Caution: be mindful that a negative gut reaction, a hesitation or procrastination can be fear talking. Was what you are feeling an immediate response or was there a thought that came right before? What thoughts are going through your mind as you sit in this feeling? Is there negative self-talk? Is this a worry about the past or future? Does it feel emotional, a fear-based response?

Are Women More Intuitive?

“I’ve trusted the still, small voice of my intuition my entire life. And, the only time I’ve made mistakes is when I didn’t listen.” – Oprah Winfrey

There are a number of male entrepreneurs who have said that too – hello, Steve Jobs. So, is there a difference?

We often hear about a “women’s intuition”. I read some studies and I think somewhat inclusive.

Here are some things to consider. Women tend to be more attuned to their feelings. Intuition is a feeling. It’s turning inward and being aware of your thoughts and reactions.

Do we trust it more?

I’m not sure. I think that there is a fair amount of second-guessing that happens, or we over-analyze. Societal norms maybe have labeled it silly or a “feminine” trait that we reject so we can be taken seriously.

Maybe women talk about it or acknowledge it more – again we are more comfortable talking about feelings. I read in one study that men often refer to it as judgement or experience (which I did too above). Are these just labels for the same things?

For all you Founders out there…I leave you with this reflection from Chip Wilson, Founder of Lululemon.

“It’s not enough to learn to trust your gut – you also have to learn to make the business case for why others should trust it, as well.”

He goes on to say even as successful as Lululemon is today, he made mistakes by not listening to his gut. He also says he uses a panel (formal and informal, with a range of experiences in areas he doesn’t have) to bounce his gut reactions off of if he feels uneasy about a decision.

So, listen, learn and it’s ok to tap into others that are objective and experienced to gauge whether you are totally off base!! Even then, it’s your decision.